Is a Luxury Watch Actually a Good Investment? The Data

The short answer (and why it’s more nuanced than “yes”)

Are luxury watches a good investment? Sometimes—but only if the reference clears three tests at once: genuine demand that is stronger than supply, a resale market deep enough to sell quickly, and enough gross appreciation to survive the ownership costs most appreciation stories ignore.

The best-known steel sports watches from Rolex, Patek Philippe and Audemars Piguet can pass those tests over a long period. The ordinary case is very different. Many excellent watches from the same brands, and many enthusiast favorites from Omega and Tudor, look far less compelling once inflation, service bills, insurance premiums and dealer buy/sell spreads are applied.

Methodology: what we measured and where the data comes from

This guide is built around a fixed 30-reference sample across Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Omega and Tudor. For each reference, the return model should compare a 2016 entry price with annual market prices through 2026, then subtract estimated ownership friction.

Returns should be shown three ways: nominal return, inflation-adjusted return, and net return after insurance, servicing and spread. The third number is the only one that resembles the owner’s actual outcome.

The references that actually appreciated (with 10-year charts)

The appreciation story is real—but concentrated. Steel sports references with persistent waitlists and cultural liquidity are the cohort most likely to show returns beyond inflation. In this sample, the likely outperformers are the Daytona 116500LN, Nautilus 5711/1A, Aquanaut 5167A and 5164A, Royal Oak 15202ST, selected Royal Oak three-hand references and limited references such as the Omega Speedmaster Silver Snoopy.

The key analytical point is that the winners are not “luxury watches” broadly. They are specific references with deep buyer pools, low supply relative to demand, and a market price that dealers can underwrite quickly.

The references that didn’t (honest downside cases)

Plenty of good watches do not make good investments. The weaker cohort tends to include precious-metal dress watches bought near retail, less-hyped steel sports watches, larger production mainstream references and pieces that require a dealer discount to move quickly.

A flat nominal price over ten years is not flat in real life. After inflation, servicing and the dealer spread, it can be a meaningful loss. That is why a watch can be “worth what you paid” and still have been a poor investment.

The hidden costs: insurance, servicing, dealer spread

The cleanest watch-investing analysis starts with a simple hurdle rate. A buyer needs enough appreciation to cover the costs below before they can claim an actual investment gain.

Example: if a watch rises 40% over ten years but you paid 10% cumulatively in insurance, one service bill, and then accept a 20% dealer haircut on exit, the owner’s real return can be modest or negative before inflation.

How this compares to other alternative assets

Watches have one advantage many alternatives lack: the owner can enjoy the asset. They also have several disadvantages: concentrated brand risk, fashion-cycle risk, authenticity risk, theft risk, maintenance cost and transaction costs that are far higher than public-market securities.

Compared with art, wine, whisky or classic cars, the best watch references are more portable and often more liquid. Compared with equities or broad index funds, they are less diversified, less transparent and more expensive to transact. That makes watches closer to a collectible with optional investment characteristics than a core investment allocation.

Our framework for buying with resale in mind

1. Start with real scarcity. Real waitlists, discontinued references and constrained production matter. Marketing scarcity is not enough.
2. Prefer liquid steel sports watches over niche precious-metal references. Precious metal can be wonderful to own, but resale liquidity is often thinner.
3. Buy complete sets. Box, papers, service records and clean provenance reduce friction when selling.
4. Underwrite the exit before the purchase. Ask what a reputable dealer would pay today, not what listings ask.
5. Budget ownership friction upfront. If the investment case only works before insurance, service and spread, it does not work.
6. Buy the watch you actually want. Appreciation is a possible bonus; enjoyment is the only guaranteed return.